Payments market sizing that shows the revenue you can win.

Payments market sizing is the estimate of the revenue a payments or fintech product can capture in a market. The bottom-up formula combines customer count, transaction value and the take rate earned on that value, which separates the total pool from the share one product can win. Nextyn builds each estimate from primary interviews and surveys with merchants and payments executives, drawing on a network of 10,000+ merchants, so every assumption traces back to evidence a board can test.

A Nextyn payments market sizing study delivers three outputs: a bottom-up revenue model, a capturable revenue estimate and a set of take-rate and volume assumptions checked with buyers. Each output comes from primary interviews and surveys with the market, not from top-down desk estimates:

• Bottom-up revenue model: a market sizing framework of customer counts, transaction value and take rates, by market and segment
• Capturable revenue estimate: the share of the pool your product can win, separated from the total market
• Checked assumptions: the volumes and take rates merchants and payments executives confirm, with the source of each

Nextyn interviews the four groups whose numbers add up to a payments market: merchants, payments and fintech executives, finance leaders and industry experts. Each sizing study draws its sample from these groups, matched to the product, the segments and the markets in scope:

• Merchants, by size, industry and sales channel, from a network of 10,000+
• Payments and fintech executives, from 2,000+ reachable CxOs
• Finance leaders who choose payment providers and pay the fees
• Industry experts who track volumes and take rates, from 500+ on call

Nextyn sizes payments markets in the United Kingdom, across Europe and in North America, among other markets. The markets are agreed at scoping and follow the decision the number must support, whether that is one launch market or a multi-country plan. Nextyn's payments practice has completed 250+ assignments across 30 markets, including a 13,000+ respondent merchant acceptance survey across 28 countries and a 300-merchant in-store payments survey in the UK.

Nextyn recommends commissioning payments market sizing before a revenue target, hiring plan or funding round is fixed to a number. At that stage sizing a market still shapes the plan: take rates can be tested, segments reordered and markets dropped before money is committed. Other triggers include entry into a new market, a new product line and investor diligence on addressable revenue. Nextyn sends a research plan within 48 hours of the brief, so the work fits a board or fundraising timetable.

A Nextyn payments market sizing project runs in four steps, from brief to read-out, and nothing is commissioned until the client approves the plan. The client sees the sample, method and price before any fieldwork, and reads every interview with the Nextyn team at the end.

1. Submit the brief: the product, the markets and the decision the number must support.
2. Receive a plan within 48 hours: who Nextyn will interview, how, and what the work costs.
3. Approve the plan: fieldwork starts only after sign-off.
4. Review the read-out: every interview read together, showing where sources agree, where they conflict and what is still open.

Nextyn sends a payments market sizing plan within 48 hours of receiving the brief, stating who will be interviewed, how, and what the work costs. The plan sets the fieldwork length for the markets and customer groups in scope, so a single-market model and a multi-country sizing each get their own timeline. Nothing is commissioned until the plan is approved, and the read-out shows where the volume and take-rate evidence agrees and where it conflicts.

Nextyn's payments market sizing estimates the revenue one product can capture, built bottom up from new interviews and surveys, while a syndicated report gives a top-down total for a whole category. The two answer different questions: the report describes the market, and the sizing shows the share one product can win.